Gold prices are slightly higher in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. The metal is seeing some very modest safe-haven demand amid a U.S. stock market sell-off early this week. However, a firmer U.S. dollar index today that is trading not far below last week’s two-year high is limiting the upside for gold. June gold futures were last up $2.00 an ounce at $1,285.80. July Comex silverwas last down $0.017 at $14.91 an ounce.
The near-term price uptrends in the U.S. stock indexes (as seen on the daily bar charts) are now in jeopardy of being negated. That would be a significant positive for the metals markets because such would be a bearish technical development and would also suggest a continued outflow of monies from paper assets—monies then seeking a new home that could include hard assets like precious metals.
World stock markets were mixed overnight in cautious trading. The stock, financial and commodity markets are trying to digest the surprise developments on the U.S.-China trade front that saw President Trump threaten new tariffs on imported Chinese products. However, the marketplace is somewhat assuaged Tuesday as the Chinese trade delegation is still headed for Washington, D.C. for talks this week, including their chief negotiator. Also, upon reflection, many traders and investors are wondering if Trump’s threatening tweets on Sunday were just a negotiating tactic. Still, Trump’s trade advisors said Monday that the Chinese commitments on trade had seen “erosion.”
Trump tweeted that some degree of a trade deal with China needs to happen by the end of this week, or new tariffs go into effect. It’s a very hard read on the outcome of this matter. Thus, the keener uncertainty among traders and investors will play better into the hands of market bears.
Gold and silver markets bulls have been disappointed their safe-haven metals have not seen better demand amid the heightened geopolitical uncertainty that includes the potential U.S.-China trade war escalation but also increased U.S.-Iran tensions. However, reports say demand from major gold-consuming country India is expected to be significantly higher on the geopolitical tensions, especially as this is the time of stronger seasonal demand for gold.
The other key “outside market” today sees Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $61.50 a barrel. There are now chart clues that the oil market has put in a price top. That’s also a negative for the raw commodity sector, including the metals markets.
Technically, June gold futures pricesclosed near the session high. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A 2.5-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,300.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,250.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s $1,287.40 and then at $1,290.90. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,278.10 and then at $1,275.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5
July silver futures prices closed nearer the session high today. The silver bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A 2.5-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $15.25 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the November low of $14.175. First resistance is seen at $15.00 and then at $15.15. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $14.77 and then at last week’s low of $14.57. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
July N.Y. copper closed down 375 points at 279.20 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 291.35 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 270.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 284.85 cents and then at 288.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 270.10 cents and then at this week’s low of 274.15 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.